ArchitectingTheFuture

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Vision for Space Exploration - Architecting The Future

Welcome to the Architecting The Future wiki.

• This page is intended to support the planning of the Vision for Space Exploration - Architecting The Future session program for the ISDC 2006.

• This session is part of the Space Studies Institute Track and is a cooperative effort between the Space Studies Institute and the National Space Society.

1. Vision for Space Exploration - Architecting The Future
   1. News
   2. Session Purpose(s)
   3. Session Contacts
   4. Session Participants
   5. Participant Mailing List
   6. Participant Abstracts, Papers, and Presentations
   7. Vision for Space Exploration Session Outline
   8. Joint Outline - Architecting the Future
   9. Initial Thoughts
   10. Session Timing & Logistics
   11. Source Material
       1. Material from ISDC 2005 Architecting the Future Session

News

1. The wiki is now accessible

   • In order to maximize the value of the session there is a compelling need for a collaborative environment for participants to develop the presentation plan.

   • You should be able to edit this page. Security is by currently by revision control/rollback. Click on edit below and look at the notes to see how simple it is.

   • ArchitectingTheFuture2007

   • ArchitectingTheFuture2008

Session Purpose(s)

1. Introduce and elababorate on the construct of the Architecting the Future

2. Provide an engaging entry point into the discussion of architecting the future from an engineering perspective

3. Demonstrate how the potential synergy between disciplines, programs, agencies, and governments might impact the outcome.

4. Frame the Vision of Space Exploration initative as an element of our transition to a spacefaring society not just a set piece of current agency policy.

   • energy hook

   • natural disasters

Session Contacts

1. Gary Barnhard - Session Chair Vision for Space Exploration - barnhard@barnhard.com

Session Participants

1. Greg Allison - harcspace@aol.com -

2. Gary Barnhard - barnhard@barnhard.com - +! 301 229 8012

3. Masse Bloomfield - massespace@yahoo.com

4. Pamela Conrad - conrad@jpl.nasa.gov

5. Brian Enke - brian.enke@gmail.com

6. Pascal Lee - pascal.lee@marsinstitute.info

7. Sherry E. Bell, Ph.D. Evolutionary Psychology and Its Implications for the Future of Humans in Space

Participant Mailing List

harcspace@aol.com barnhard@barnhard.com massespace@yahoo.com brian.enke@gmail.com conrad@jpl.nasa.gov pascal.lee@marsinstitute.info

Participant Abstracts, Papers, and Presentations

Please note that the normal isdc site http://isdc.xisp.net/~kmiller/isdc_archive/isdc.php?link=Welcome should be used for all formal submissions, the links below are provided solely for the purposes of facilitating collaboration amongst the session participants.

• Gary Barnhard - Architecting the Future - BarnhardAbstract - BarnhardPaper - BarnhardPresentation

• Masse Bloomfield: Space - The Endless Frontier - BloomfieldAbstract - BloomfieldPaper - BloomfieldPresentation

• Brian Enke: The Medusa Approach to Mars Exploration and Settlement - EnkeAbstract - EnkePaper - EnkePresentation

• Pamela Conrad: Making the Vision Real: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Space Exploration - ConradAbstract - ConradPaper - ConradPresentation

  • Sherry E. Bell, Ph.D.: Evolutionary Psychology and Its Implications for the Future of Humans in Space BellAbstract - BellPaper - BellPresentation

• Niklas Jarvstrat: Building a Self Reliant Moon Colony - JarvstratAbstract - JarvstratPaper - JarvstratPresentation

• Klaus Heiss: The Jamestown proposal - HeissAbstract - HeissPaper - HeissPresentation

• Greg Allison: Human Destiny - Why We Must Choose to Settle Space Now to Survive - AllisonAbstract - AllisonPaper - AllisonPresentation

• Pascal Lee: Astronaut Training for Moon and Mars Surface - LeeAbstract - LeePaper - LeePresentation

Vision for Space Exploration Session Outline

* What is envisioned is some combination of individual papers and a panel discussion which would include individual time for each speaker and audience Q&A.

* The currently booked program is as follows:

• 3:00-5:00 Architecting the Future Panel discussion (Gary Barnhard, et.al.)

• 5:00 P.M. Greg Allison: Human Destiny - Why We Must Choose to Settle Space Now to Survive

• 5:30 P.M. Pascal Lee: Astronaut Training for Moon and Mars Surface - LeeAbstract - LeePaper - LeePresentation

* The session chair will discuss the options with each participant directly

* Participants are strongly encouraged to add their thoughts to this wiki

Joint Outline - Architecting the Future

Initial Thoughts

• The intention of the session is to layout and discuss the key systems engineering challenges (technical, organizational, and scientific) associated with architecting the future as we would like to see it come to pass (i.e., our evolution to a spacefaring society in earnest).

• The objective in my mind being to establish a clear connection between where we are technically and where we think we need to go by discipline area. In so doing I think the session would be accessible and of value to both attendees that have a general interest in learning more about architecting our future as a spacefaring society as well as sufficiently engaging to spur the interest of attendees that may chose to become professionally involved in some capacity.

• The intention of the session, and this introductory paper is to layout and discuss the key systems engineering challenges (technical, organizational, and scientific) associated with architecting the future as we would like to see it come to pass (i.e., our evolution to a spacefaring society in earnest). This paper examines Phil Culbertson's Systems Engineering conundrum of "How do you manage the systems engineering of a project when it is not yet understood what is truely required to accomplish it?" and the germane corallary "You can not change the size of an airlock in software!". The paper examines the conceptual evolution necessary to allow a transition from a merely a "Permanent presence" in space to "Communities" of humanity in space. An outline of the key drivers: Technical, Organizational, and Scientific is offered along with an examination of the actuators cast in terms of Technological push and/or Conceptual pull.

Session Timing & Logistics

1. Our time slot is from 3:00 pm to 6:00 pm on Friday, May 5, 2005. Please note the correct times added above.

2. Room allocation and draw expectations remain to be set.

3. Exact scheduling is subject to negotiation. Please let us know your constraints.

4. Formal papers are strongly encouraged by not required for panel discussion participants.

5. Presentation charts are required for all participants.

6. The intention is to prepare a collaborative, consolidated, or at the very list a compendium presentation for each panel discussion.

7. Please update your name, organization, title, contact info, etc.

8. Please append the URL's for anything you would like to share with the group.

9. Please send copies of anything that you would like to share that is not web accessible to barnhard@barnhard.com

10. If you subscribe to this Wiki page you will be notified when someone changes it!

11. It is anticipated that the conference will be video taped by one or more concerns. Let us know if you have release concerns.

12. Everyone should be registered for the conference as a speaker or sign up for full conference registration. Let me know your intentions.

Source Material

Additional references and other source material provided by participants can be found below:

Material from ISDC 2005 Architecting the Future Session

• Recent quote from NASA Administrator Mike Griffin - With regard to the present time, Griffin said: "In the 21st century for America to go forward and remain and for our culture and our values - and the values of western civilization to go forward, it is necessary that America be the pre-eminent space faring nation. I don't know when it will happen, or exactly how it will happen, but I know it will happen, that one day there will be as many people living off the Earth as living on it - and that may be a thousand or two thousand yeas in the future. But when that occurs, it is my belief that we want their ideals, their culture, their thoughts to be those of western civilization because I believe, that for all of its flaws, that the civilization that we have evolved in western society is the best we've seen so far in human history. I think it needs to be improved upon - but not replaced. If we are not the preeminent spacefaring nation it will not survive because the future for human kind is in space not on Earth. We can only do our small part today."

  1. Dr. Paul Werbos - National Science Foundation

     • Brief on Strategic Thinking Regarding Space Settlements http://www.xisp.net/mmbmaterial/SomeStrategicThinkingForSpaceSettlement05.pdf

     • Presentation on Energy Futures http://www.xisp.net/mmbmaterial/energy_strategy.ppt

  2. Bennett R. Hart - Deputy Director, Advanced Systems and Technology, National Reconnaissance Office

     • Presentation on models for interagency cooperation?

  3. Cindy Mahler - The Boeing Company

     • Paper on International Cooperation http://www.xisp.net/mmbmaterial/MahlerEngelInternationalPartnering.pdf

  4. Gary Barnhard - Barnhard Associates, LLC

     • Article on Factoring the http://www.xisp.net/mmbmaterial/FactoringTheFuture.pdf

  5. Jim Schier - NASA Space Operations Mission Directorate

     • Future Communication Architecture Paper http://www.xisp.net/mmbmaterial/SpaceCommArchAIAApaper31017.pdf

     • Outline for Jim Schier's Presentation ISDC 2005

       • 1. Architecting the Future - How, Where, What, but first: Why?

       • 1.1. SE - branch of Engineering that treats problems holistically, i.e., lust to dust

       • 1.1.1. Lust: passionate or overwhelming desire or craving

       • 1.1.2. SE seeks to identify the needs and desires of the group seeking solution(s), so what are these desires? That is, why do we want to go to space and what do we want to do when we get there?

       • 1.1.3. Top Reasons Why We Want To Go To Space & How We Are Addressing Them

       • 1.1.3.1. A Renewed Spirit of Discovery: The fundamental goal of this vision is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program. (Reasons 1-3)

       • 1.1.3.1.1. Advance U.S. scientific interests

       • 1.1.3.1.1.1. Near Earth missions

       • 1.1.3.1.1.1.1. Robotic missions: EOS, RLEP

       • 1.1.3.1.1.1.2. Human missions: ISS

       • 1.1.3.1.1.2. Deep space missions - all robotic

       • 1.1.3.1.1.2.1. Structure & Evolution of Universe Theme

       • 1.1.3.1.1.2.2. Astronomical Search for Origins Theme

       • 1.1.3.1.1.2.3. Solar System Exploration Theme

       • 1.1.3.1.1.2.4. Sun-Earth Connection Theme

       • 1.1.3.1.1.2.5. Dynamic Earth System

       • 1.1.3.1.2. Advance U.S. security interests

       • 1.1.3.1.2.1. Areas of joint interest between NASA & defense & security

       • 1.1.3.1.2.2. Operationally Responsive Spacelift -> Space Based Range

       • 1.1.3.1.3. Advance U.S. economic interests

       • 1.1.3.1.3.1. Aerospace industry resulting from direct USG contracting has large positive trade balance for US exports - maintain leadership

       • 1.1.3.1.3.2. High end ELV business has declined forcing Boeing & Lockheed-Martin to combine their Delta-IV & Atlas V lines

       • 1.1.3.1.3.3. High cost of access to space has forestalled development of commercial space business - until now. Recent advances:

       • 1.1.3.1.3.3.1. Simpler & safer rocket engines

       • 1.1.3.1.3.3.2. Reusable vehicles with short turnaround

       • 1.1.3.1.3.3.3. Low cost approach, e.g., Air-launched vehicle

       • 1.1.3.1.3.3.4. Minimal training & mild flight environment

       • 1.1.3.1.3.3.5. X Prize Competitors as examples

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4. How could USG promote commercial space development?

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.1. Aviation analogy - 1925 Air Mail Act & 1926 Air Commerce Act - encouraged est. aircraft & air mail companies

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2. Space counterpart - identify products or services needed by USG that could be encouraged by appropriate legislation with USG acting as anchor customer to reduce entry risk

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2.1. Space Mail/Cargo

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2.2. Cargo Tug

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2.3. Autonomous Prospecting Robots

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2.4. Lunar Construction Equipment

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2.5. Autonomous Maintenance Robot

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.2.6. Telecom Services - data relay

       • 1.1.3.1.3.4.3. NASA Centennial Challenges

       • 1.1.3.2. Vastly reduce the cost of further space exploration

       • 1.1.3.3. Lift national Spirit

       • 1.1.3.3.1. Existence of exciting & bold initiatives to inspire young people

       • 1.1.3.3.2. Education programs ¡V NASA budgeting $167M in FY06

       • 1.1.3.3.3. Smithsonian Institute¡¦s National Air & Space Museum

       • 1.1.3.3.4. Challenger Centers, science centers, & space-related museums

       • 1.1.3.4. Explore

       • 1.1.3.4.1. Aldridge Commission: ...engage the public in a journey that will shape the course of human destiny

       • 1.1.3.4.2. ESMD, ESS, CEV...

       • 1.1.3.5. Discover & Predict

       • 1.1.3.5.1. For both exploration & discovery:

       • 1.1.3.5.1.1. Comm & Nav infrastructure - architecture for 2030

       • 1.1.3.5.1.2. International Interoperability - spectrum, standards, mgmt

       • 1.1.3.5.2. Opportunities for commercial insertion:

       • 1.1.3.5.2.1. Telecom

       • 1.1.3.5.2.2. Transportation

       • 1.1.3.5.2.3. Consumables: Propellant, Oxidizer, O2, H2O

       • 1.1.3.5.2.4. Power

       • 1.1.3.5.2.5. Sensor information: Imagery, Space Weather

       • 1.1.3.6. National Prestige

       • 1.1.3.7. Use Non-terrestrial Resources for Terrestrial Benefit

       • 1.1.3.7.1. Materials Processing

       • 1.1.3.7.2. Space Solar Power (SSP)

       • 1.1.3.7.3. Lunar ISRU

       • 1.1.3.7.4. Martian ISRU

       • 1.1.3.8. Entertainment: Have Fun, Vacation

       • 1.1.3.8.1. Sub-orbital space tourism: Virgin Galactic & others;

       • 1.1.3.8.2. Orbital space tourism in 15-20 years? - Rutan vision

       • 1.1.3.9. Colonize: Expand human presence into new frontier - Not started yet

       • 1.1.3.10. Escape (from oppressive government, natural & manmade disasters, bad economic conditions, religious persecution) - Not started yet

       • 1.1.3.11. Survive (long term species survival) - Threat detection started

       • 1.1.4. Cultural & Management Principles

       • 1.1.4.1. KISS

       • 1.1.4.2. Integrity

       • 1.1.5. Affordability

       • 1.1.5.1. Affordability Level (AL) Scale

       • 1.1.5.2. Identify Key Systems needed to raise the AL of Human Mission to Mars

       • 2. Summary Scorecard showing status of efforts in addressing Top Reasons For Space